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dc.contributor.authorCarmignani, Fabrizio
dc.contributor.authorKler, Parvinder
dc.contributor.editorRohde, Nicholas
dc.contributor.editorNaranpanawa, Athula
dc.date.accessioned2020-01-16T07:59:21Z
dc.date.available2020-01-16T07:59:21Z
dc.date.issued2014
dc.identifier.issn1837-7750
dc.identifier.otherRePEc:gri:epaper:economics:201402
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10072/390420
dc.description.abstractAnecdotal accounts of the geographical spread of war inevitably involve Sub-Sahara African countries. But is the conflict spillover effect effectively stronger in Sub-Saharan Africa than elsewhere? To answer this question, we specify a dynamic spatial panel model and estimate it for two separate samples: the group of all Sub-Saharan Africa countries and a group of other emerging and developing economies. It turns out that the conflict spillover is stronger and more persistent over time in the latter. However, when attention is restricted to civil wars, the contemporaneous spillover effect is stronger in Sub-Saharan Africa. One extra year of war in the neighbourhood of a generic Sub-Saharan African country in a given decade results in about three more weeks of war in that country in the same decade. This spillover effect is significantly stronger for civil wars than it is for interstate wars. However, the effect is halved after one decade. We argue that even if not quantitatively large, policymakers should not understate its importance and intervene to prevent possible regional escalation of violence.
dc.format.extent25 pages
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherGriffith University
dc.publisher.placeBrisbane, Australia
dc.relation.ispartofpagefrom1
dc.relation.ispartofpageto25
dc.subject.keywordsD74 - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
dc.subject.keywordsC23 - Single Equation Models; Single Variables: Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
dc.subject.keywordsN47 - Economic History: Government, War, Law, International Relations, and Regulation: Africa; Oceania
dc.title2014-02: The geographic spillover of armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa (Working paper)
dc.typeReport
dc.type.descriptionDiscussion Paper
gro.facultyGriffith Business School
gro.description.notepublicEconomics and Business Statistics
gro.rights.copyrightCopyright © 2010 by author(s). No part of this paper may be reproduced in any form, or stored in a retrieval system, without prior permission of the author(s).
gro.date.issued2014
gro.hasfulltextFull Text
gro.griffith.authorCarmignani, Fabrizio
gro.griffith.authorKler, Parvinder S.


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