2012-14: Forecasting volatility of the ASEAN-5 stock markets: a nonlinear approach with non-normal errors (Working paper)

View/ Open
Author(s)
Guidi, Francesco
Gupta, Rakesh
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2012
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
This paper aims to model and forecast the volatility of stock markets belonging to the five founder members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations, referred to as the ASEAN-5. By using Asymmetric-PARCH (APARCH) models with two different distributions (Student-t and GED) we aim to identify whether or not an asymmetric effect characterises the relation among stock return and volatility in the ASEAN-5 markets as well as under which statistical distribution these models perform better. By using several forecast error measures we show that APARCH models with t-distribution usually perform better.This paper aims to model and forecast the volatility of stock markets belonging to the five founder members of the Association of South-East Asian Nations, referred to as the ASEAN-5. By using Asymmetric-PARCH (APARCH) models with two different distributions (Student-t and GED) we aim to identify whether or not an asymmetric effect characterises the relation among stock return and volatility in the ASEAN-5 markets as well as under which statistical distribution these models perform better. By using several forecast error measures we show that APARCH models with t-distribution usually perform better.
View less >
View less >
Copyright Statement
Copyright © 2010 by author(s). No part of this paper may be reproduced in any form, or stored in a retrieval system, without prior permission of the author(s).
Note
Finance
Subject
G15 - International Financial Markets
G17 - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
ASEAN
leverage effect
forecast