2017-11: The importance of periodicity in modelling infectious disease outbreaks (Working paper)

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Author(s)
Verikios, George
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2017
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The economic effects of pandemic influenza, a regularly recurring form of infectious disease, are analysed. Epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of the pandemic from regional populations to regional economies. The analysis builds on previous studies that apply computable general equilibrium models with quarterly periodicity to assess the economic effects of infectious disease. The economic effects are assessed with the annual and quarterly periodicity, and the results are compared and contrasted. The analysis demonstrates the importance of quarterly periodicity as it can capture the ...
View more >The economic effects of pandemic influenza, a regularly recurring form of infectious disease, are analysed. Epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of the pandemic from regional populations to regional economies. The analysis builds on previous studies that apply computable general equilibrium models with quarterly periodicity to assess the economic effects of infectious disease. The economic effects are assessed with the annual and quarterly periodicity, and the results are compared and contrasted. The analysis demonstrates the importance of quarterly periodicity as it can capture the short, sharp duration of influenza pandemics. The results demonstrate that annual economic models strongly underestimate the economic effects of infectious disease outbreaks that have a lifespan of less than one year because they can not accurately capture the time profile of an infectious disease outbreak.
View less >
View more >The economic effects of pandemic influenza, a regularly recurring form of infectious disease, are analysed. Epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of the pandemic from regional populations to regional economies. The analysis builds on previous studies that apply computable general equilibrium models with quarterly periodicity to assess the economic effects of infectious disease. The economic effects are assessed with the annual and quarterly periodicity, and the results are compared and contrasted. The analysis demonstrates the importance of quarterly periodicity as it can capture the short, sharp duration of influenza pandemics. The results demonstrate that annual economic models strongly underestimate the economic effects of infectious disease outbreaks that have a lifespan of less than one year because they can not accurately capture the time profile of an infectious disease outbreak.
View less >
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Copyright © 2010 by author(s). No part of this paper may be reproduced in any form, or stored in a retrieval system, without prior permission of the author(s).
Note
Economics and Business Statistics
Subject
E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
I18 - Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
F15 - Economic Integration
Computable general equilibrium
infectious diseases
pandemic influenza
periodicity
trade linkages