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  • 2017-11: The importance of periodicity in modelling infectious disease outbreaks (Working paper)

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    Discussion paper (1.073Mb)
    Author(s)
    Verikios, George
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Verikios, George
    Year published
    2017
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    Abstract
    The economic effects of pandemic influenza, a regularly recurring form of infectious disease, are analysed. Epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of the pandemic from regional populations to regional economies. The analysis builds on previous studies that apply computable general equilibrium models with quarterly periodicity to assess the economic effects of infectious disease. The economic effects are assessed with the annual and quarterly periodicity, and the results are compared and contrasted. The analysis demonstrates the importance of quarterly periodicity as it can capture the ...
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    The economic effects of pandemic influenza, a regularly recurring form of infectious disease, are analysed. Epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of the pandemic from regional populations to regional economies. The analysis builds on previous studies that apply computable general equilibrium models with quarterly periodicity to assess the economic effects of infectious disease. The economic effects are assessed with the annual and quarterly periodicity, and the results are compared and contrasted. The analysis demonstrates the importance of quarterly periodicity as it can capture the short, sharp duration of influenza pandemics. The results demonstrate that annual economic models strongly underestimate the economic effects of infectious disease outbreaks that have a lifespan of less than one year because they can not accurately capture the time profile of an infectious disease outbreak.
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    Copyright Statement
    Copyright © 2010 by author(s). No part of this paper may be reproduced in any form, or stored in a retrieval system, without prior permission of the author(s).
    Note
    Economics and Business Statistics
    Subject
    E32 - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    C68 - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    I18 - Health: Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    F15 - Economic Integration
    Computable general equilibrium
    infectious diseases
    pandemic influenza
    periodicity
    trade linkages
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/390478
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    • Reports

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