2018-03: Climate change, crop productivity and regional growth disparity in Bangladesh: What does a district-level regional CGE model tell us? (Working paper)
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Author(s)
Paul, Sudeshna
Naranpanawa, Athula
Bandaralage, Jay
Sarker, Tapan
Year published
2018
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Regarding the Agriculture sector in Bangladesh, climate change has been portrayed as having one of the most potentially significant negative impacts on the national macroeconomic environment. However, while the existing literature makes reference to estimations of the impacts of climate change on the national economy, it has presented little detailed evidence regarding its impacts on different regions or regional disparities. This study utilises a sixty-four administrative district-level Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to project the growth disparities and income loss under "pessimistic", "medium" and "optimistic" ...
View more >Regarding the Agriculture sector in Bangladesh, climate change has been portrayed as having one of the most potentially significant negative impacts on the national macroeconomic environment. However, while the existing literature makes reference to estimations of the impacts of climate change on the national economy, it has presented little detailed evidence regarding its impacts on different regions or regional disparities. This study utilises a sixty-four administrative district-level Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to project the growth disparities and income loss under "pessimistic", "medium" and "optimistic" climate induced crop productivity loss scenarios by 2030. Even though the percentage changes in gross regional products of most of the districts are declining, the growth disparities among the 64 districts are not likely to change significantly by 2030. However, poor populations in poverty stricken districts are expected to experience relatively greater average income loss.
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View more >Regarding the Agriculture sector in Bangladesh, climate change has been portrayed as having one of the most potentially significant negative impacts on the national macroeconomic environment. However, while the existing literature makes reference to estimations of the impacts of climate change on the national economy, it has presented little detailed evidence regarding its impacts on different regions or regional disparities. This study utilises a sixty-four administrative district-level Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to project the growth disparities and income loss under "pessimistic", "medium" and "optimistic" climate induced crop productivity loss scenarios by 2030. Even though the percentage changes in gross regional products of most of the districts are declining, the growth disparities among the 64 districts are not likely to change significantly by 2030. However, poor populations in poverty stricken districts are expected to experience relatively greater average income loss.
View less >
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Note
Economics and Business Statistics
Subject
Agricultural Economics
Q54 - Climate; Natural Disasters; Global Warming
R11 - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
D58 - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
Climate change
Crop productivity
Regional disparities
Computable General Equilibrium model
Bangladesh