Climate Change: Where to from here?
Author(s)
Lowe, Ian
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2018
Metadata
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Forty years ago, I analysed Australia's future energy alternatives in the very first issue of 'Social Alternatives' (Lowe 1977). This was a few years after the 'energy crisis' of the early 1970s, so the oil price had already increased in five years from under two dollars a barrel to about ten dollars. The consequent price inflation had also destabilised most elected governments. The phenomenon of 'stagflation' - inflation without economic growth - discredited Keynesian economics and kickstarted the Chicago Schools' great leap backwards to the neo-liberal economic theories that have done untold damage. Although the oil crisis ...
View more >Forty years ago, I analysed Australia's future energy alternatives in the very first issue of 'Social Alternatives' (Lowe 1977). This was a few years after the 'energy crisis' of the early 1970s, so the oil price had already increased in five years from under two dollars a barrel to about ten dollars. The consequent price inflation had also destabilised most elected governments. The phenomenon of 'stagflation' - inflation without economic growth - discredited Keynesian economics and kickstarted the Chicago Schools' great leap backwards to the neo-liberal economic theories that have done untold damage. Although the oil crisis demonstrated that Hubbert's 1956 theory of 'peak oil' was correct, most decision-makers chose to ignore it. I argued that the future would demand a move away from petroleum fuels as they inevitably became more expensive. My discussion did not include any reference to climate change, which only became an issue outside the small community of relevant scientists after the 1985 Villach conference. Within a few years, it became clear that climate change was significant and would demand a new approach to energy supply and use (Lowe 1989). Vested interests and extremely conservative politicians have prolonged the fossil fuel industry for another three decades, largely through carefully orchestrated misinformation, but rapid change is now occurring at the global and local level. While an optimist might think that even Coalition governments will have to bow to the inevitable, the fixation with growth remains a fundamental obstacle. I will summarise the developments in climate science and the changing politics of climate change in Australia, before speculating on the future prospects.
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View more >Forty years ago, I analysed Australia's future energy alternatives in the very first issue of 'Social Alternatives' (Lowe 1977). This was a few years after the 'energy crisis' of the early 1970s, so the oil price had already increased in five years from under two dollars a barrel to about ten dollars. The consequent price inflation had also destabilised most elected governments. The phenomenon of 'stagflation' - inflation without economic growth - discredited Keynesian economics and kickstarted the Chicago Schools' great leap backwards to the neo-liberal economic theories that have done untold damage. Although the oil crisis demonstrated that Hubbert's 1956 theory of 'peak oil' was correct, most decision-makers chose to ignore it. I argued that the future would demand a move away from petroleum fuels as they inevitably became more expensive. My discussion did not include any reference to climate change, which only became an issue outside the small community of relevant scientists after the 1985 Villach conference. Within a few years, it became clear that climate change was significant and would demand a new approach to energy supply and use (Lowe 1989). Vested interests and extremely conservative politicians have prolonged the fossil fuel industry for another three decades, largely through carefully orchestrated misinformation, but rapid change is now occurring at the global and local level. While an optimist might think that even Coalition governments will have to bow to the inevitable, the fixation with growth remains a fundamental obstacle. I will summarise the developments in climate science and the changing politics of climate change in Australia, before speculating on the future prospects.
View less >
Journal Title
Social Alternatives
Volume
37
Issue
2
Subject
Political science
Sociology
Social Sciences