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  • Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

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    Accepted Manuscript (AM)
    Author(s)
    Morim, Joao
    Hemer, Mark
    Wang, Xiaolan L
    Cartwright, Nick
    Trenham, Claire
    Semedos, Alvaro
    Young, Ian
    Bricheno, Lucy
    Camus, Paula
    Casas-Prat, Merce
    Erikson, Li
    Mentaschi, Lorenzo
    Mori, Nobuhito
    Shimura, Tomoya
    Timmermans, Ben
    Aarnes, Ole
    Breivik, Oyvind
    Behrens, Arno
    Dobrynin, Mikhail
    Menendez, Melisa
    Staneva, Joanna
    Wehner, Michael
    Wolf, Judith
    Kamranzad, Bahareh
    Webb, Adrean
    Stopa, Justin
    Andutta, Fernando
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Cartwright, Nick B.
    Pinheiro Andutta, Fernando
    Year published
    2019
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Abstract
    Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under ...
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    Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.
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    Journal Title
    Nature Climate Change
    Volume
    9
    Issue
    9
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
    Copyright Statement
    © 2019 Nature Publishing Group. This is the author-manuscript version of this paper. Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the journal website for access to the definitive, published version.
    Subject
    Climate change impacts and adaptation
    Climate change science
    Atmospheric sciences
    Physical geography and environmental geoscience
    Science & Technology
    Life Sciences & Biomedicine
    Physical Sciences
    Environmental Sciences
    Environmental Studies
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/396043
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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