dc.contributor.author | Degeling, Koen | |
dc.contributor.author | Wong, Hui-Li | |
dc.contributor.author | Koffijberg, Hendrik | |
dc.contributor.author | Jalali, Azim | |
dc.contributor.author | Shapiro, Jeremy | |
dc.contributor.author | Kosmider, Suzanne | |
dc.contributor.author | Wong, Rachel | |
dc.contributor.author | Lee, Belinda | |
dc.contributor.author | Burge, Matthew | |
dc.contributor.author | Tie, Jeanne | |
dc.contributor.author | Yip, Desmond | |
dc.contributor.author | Nott, Louise | |
dc.contributor.author | Khattak, Adnan | |
dc.contributor.author | Lim, Stephanie | |
dc.contributor.author | Caird, Susan | |
dc.contributor.author | Gibbs, Peter | |
dc.contributor.author | IJzerman, Maarten | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2020-08-21T04:41:48Z | |
dc.date.available | 2020-08-21T04:41:48Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2020 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1179-2027 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1007/s40273-020-00951-1 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10072/396645 | |
dc.description.abstract | BACKGROUND: Simulation models utilizing real-world data have potential to optimize treatment sequencing strategies for specific patient subpopulations, including when conducting clinical trials is not feasible. We aimed to develop a simulation model to estimate progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival for first-line doublet chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab for specific subgroups of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients based on registry data. METHODS: Data from 867 patients were used to develop two survival models and one logistic regression model that populated a discrete event simulation (DES). Discrimination and calibration were used for internal validation of these models separately and predicted and observed medians and Kaplan-Meier plots were compared for the integrated DES. Bootstrapping was performed to correct for optimism in the internal validation and to generate correlated sets of model parameters for use in a probabilistic analysis to reflect parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: The survival models showed good calibration based on the regression slopes and modified Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics at 1 and 2 years, but not for short-term predictions at 0.5 years. Modified C-statistics indicated acceptable discrimination. The simulation estimated that median first-line PFS (95% confidence interval) of 219 (25%) patients could be improved from 175 days (156-199) to 269 days (246-294) if treatment would be targeted based on the highest expected PFS. CONCLUSIONS: Extensive internal validation showed that DES accurately estimated the outcomes of treatment combination strategies for specific subpopulations, with outcomes suggesting treatment could be optimized. Although results based on real-world data are informative, they cannot replace randomized trials. | |
dc.description.peerreviewed | Yes | |
dc.language | English | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.publisher | Springer Science and Business Media LLC | |
dc.relation.ispartofjournal | Pharmacoeconomics | |
dc.subject.fieldofresearch | Biomedical and clinical sciences | |
dc.subject.fieldofresearch | Clinical sciences | |
dc.subject.fieldofresearch | Economics | |
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode | 32 | |
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode | 3202 | |
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode | 38 | |
dc.title | Simulating Progression-Free and Overall Survival for First-Line Doublet Chemotherapy With or Without Bevacizumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Based on Real-World Registry Data. | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
dc.type.description | C1 - Articles | |
dcterms.bibliographicCitation | Degeling, K; Wong, H-L; Koffijberg, H; Jalali, A; Shapiro, J; Kosmider, S; Wong, R; Lee, B; Burge, M; Tie, J; Yip, D; Nott, L; Khattak, A; Lim, S; Caird, S; Gibbs, P; IJzerman, M, Simulating Progression-Free and Overall Survival for First-Line Doublet Chemotherapy With or Without Bevacizumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Based on Real-World Registry Data., Pharmacoeconomics, 2020 | |
dc.date.updated | 2020-08-21T04:16:09Z | |
gro.description.notepublic | This publication has been entered in Griffith Research Online as an advanced online version. | |
gro.hasfulltext | No Full Text | |
gro.griffith.author | Caird, Susan | |