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dc.contributor.authorDegeling, Koen
dc.contributor.authorWong, Hui-Li
dc.contributor.authorKoffijberg, Hendrik
dc.contributor.authorJalali, Azim
dc.contributor.authorShapiro, Jeremy
dc.contributor.authorKosmider, Suzanne
dc.contributor.authorWong, Rachel
dc.contributor.authorLee, Belinda
dc.contributor.authorBurge, Matthew
dc.contributor.authorTie, Jeanne
dc.contributor.authorYip, Desmond
dc.contributor.authorNott, Louise
dc.contributor.authorKhattak, Adnan
dc.contributor.authorLim, Stephanie
dc.contributor.authorCaird, Susan
dc.contributor.authorGibbs, Peter
dc.contributor.authorIJzerman, Maarten
dc.date.accessioned2020-08-21T04:41:48Z
dc.date.available2020-08-21T04:41:48Z
dc.date.issued2020
dc.identifier.issn1179-2027
dc.identifier.doi10.1007/s40273-020-00951-1
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10072/396645
dc.description.abstractBACKGROUND: Simulation models utilizing real-world data have potential to optimize treatment sequencing strategies for specific patient subpopulations, including when conducting clinical trials is not feasible. We aimed to develop a simulation model to estimate progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival for first-line doublet chemotherapy with or without bevacizumab for specific subgroups of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients based on registry data. METHODS: Data from 867 patients were used to develop two survival models and one logistic regression model that populated a discrete event simulation (DES). Discrimination and calibration were used for internal validation of these models separately and predicted and observed medians and Kaplan-Meier plots were compared for the integrated DES. Bootstrapping was performed to correct for optimism in the internal validation and to generate correlated sets of model parameters for use in a probabilistic analysis to reflect parameter uncertainty. RESULTS: The survival models showed good calibration based on the regression slopes and modified Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics at 1 and 2 years, but not for short-term predictions at 0.5 years. Modified C-statistics indicated acceptable discrimination. The simulation estimated that median first-line PFS (95% confidence interval) of 219 (25%) patients could be improved from 175 days (156-199) to 269 days (246-294) if treatment would be targeted based on the highest expected PFS. CONCLUSIONS: Extensive internal validation showed that DES accurately estimated the outcomes of treatment combination strategies for specific subpopulations, with outcomes suggesting treatment could be optimized. Although results based on real-world data are informative, they cannot replace randomized trials.
dc.description.peerreviewedYes
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherSpringer Science and Business Media LLC
dc.relation.ispartofjournalPharmacoeconomics
dc.subject.fieldofresearchBiomedical and clinical sciences
dc.subject.fieldofresearchClinical sciences
dc.subject.fieldofresearchEconomics
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode32
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode3202
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode38
dc.titleSimulating Progression-Free and Overall Survival for First-Line Doublet Chemotherapy With or Without Bevacizumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Based on Real-World Registry Data.
dc.typeJournal article
dc.type.descriptionC1 - Articles
dcterms.bibliographicCitationDegeling, K; Wong, H-L; Koffijberg, H; Jalali, A; Shapiro, J; Kosmider, S; Wong, R; Lee, B; Burge, M; Tie, J; Yip, D; Nott, L; Khattak, A; Lim, S; Caird, S; Gibbs, P; IJzerman, M, Simulating Progression-Free and Overall Survival for First-Line Doublet Chemotherapy With or Without Bevacizumab in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Based on Real-World Registry Data., Pharmacoeconomics, 2020
dc.date.updated2020-08-21T04:16:09Z
gro.description.notepublicThis publication has been entered in Griffith Research Online as an advanced online version.
gro.hasfulltextNo Full Text
gro.griffith.authorCaird, Susan


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