COVID-19 and social distancing measures in Queensland, Australia, are associated with short-term decreases in recorded violent crime
Author(s)
Payne, JL
Morgan, A
Piquero, AR
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2020
Metadata
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Objectives: The objective of this study is to test whether recorded rates of violent crime declined in the context of social distancing regulations in Queensland, Australia. Methods: ARIMA modeling was used to compute 6-month-ahead forecasts of rates for common assault, serious assault, sexual offenses, and breaches of domestic violence orders. These forecasts (and their 95% confidence intervals) are compared to the observed data for March and April 2020. Results: By the end of April, 2020, rates of common, serious, and sexual assault had declined to their lowest level in a number of years. For serious assault and sexual ...
View more >Objectives: The objective of this study is to test whether recorded rates of violent crime declined in the context of social distancing regulations in Queensland, Australia. Methods: ARIMA modeling was used to compute 6-month-ahead forecasts of rates for common assault, serious assault, sexual offenses, and breaches of domestic violence orders. These forecasts (and their 95% confidence intervals) are compared to the observed data for March and April 2020. Results: By the end of April, 2020, rates of common, serious, and sexual assault had declined to their lowest level in a number of years. For serious assault and sexual assault, the decline was beyond statistical expectations. The rate at which domestic violence orders were breached remained unchanged. Conclusions: Social distancing regulations are temporally correlated with reductions in some violent crimes. Social distancing is likely to have significantly limited interpersonal interaction, especially in locations and at times when violence is usually prevalent.
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View more >Objectives: The objective of this study is to test whether recorded rates of violent crime declined in the context of social distancing regulations in Queensland, Australia. Methods: ARIMA modeling was used to compute 6-month-ahead forecasts of rates for common assault, serious assault, sexual offenses, and breaches of domestic violence orders. These forecasts (and their 95% confidence intervals) are compared to the observed data for March and April 2020. Results: By the end of April, 2020, rates of common, serious, and sexual assault had declined to their lowest level in a number of years. For serious assault and sexual assault, the decline was beyond statistical expectations. The rate at which domestic violence orders were breached remained unchanged. Conclusions: Social distancing regulations are temporally correlated with reductions in some violent crimes. Social distancing is likely to have significantly limited interpersonal interaction, especially in locations and at times when violence is usually prevalent.
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Journal Title
Journal of Experimental Criminology
Note
This publication has been entered in Griffith Research Online as an advanced online version.
Subject
Criminology