Forecasting Tourist Arrivals
Author(s)
Lim, Christine
McAleer, Michael
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2001
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Various exponential smoothing models are estimated over the period 1975-1999 to forecast quarterly tourist arrivals to Australia from Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore. The root mean squared error criterion is used as a measure of forecast accuracy. Prior to obtaining the one-quarter-ahead forecasts for the period 1998 to 2000, the individual arrival series are tested for unit roots to distinguish between stationary and non-stationary time series arrivals. The Holt-Winters Additive and Multiplicative Seasonal models outperform the Single, Double, and the Holt-Winters Non-Seasonal Exponential Smoothing models in forecasting. ...
View more >Various exponential smoothing models are estimated over the period 1975-1999 to forecast quarterly tourist arrivals to Australia from Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore. The root mean squared error criterion is used as a measure of forecast accuracy. Prior to obtaining the one-quarter-ahead forecasts for the period 1998 to 2000, the individual arrival series are tested for unit roots to distinguish between stationary and non-stationary time series arrivals. The Holt-Winters Additive and Multiplicative Seasonal models outperform the Single, Double, and the Holt-Winters Non-Seasonal Exponential Smoothing models in forecasting. It is also found that forecasting the first differences of tourist arrivals performs worse than forecasting its various levels.
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View more >Various exponential smoothing models are estimated over the period 1975-1999 to forecast quarterly tourist arrivals to Australia from Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Singapore. The root mean squared error criterion is used as a measure of forecast accuracy. Prior to obtaining the one-quarter-ahead forecasts for the period 1998 to 2000, the individual arrival series are tested for unit roots to distinguish between stationary and non-stationary time series arrivals. The Holt-Winters Additive and Multiplicative Seasonal models outperform the Single, Double, and the Holt-Winters Non-Seasonal Exponential Smoothing models in forecasting. It is also found that forecasting the first differences of tourist arrivals performs worse than forecasting its various levels.
View less >
Journal Title
Annals of Tourism Research
Volume
28
Issue
4
Subject
Commercial services
Marketing
Tourism