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  • What is stirring in the reservoir? Modelling mechanisms of henipavirus circulation in fruit bat hosts

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    Peel248563Published.pdf (990.2Kb)
    Author(s)
    Glennon, Emma E
    Becker, Daniel J
    Peel, Alison J
    Garnier, Romain
    Suu-Ire, Richard D
    Gibson, Louise
    Hayman, David TS
    Wood, James LN
    Cunningham, Andrew A
    Plowright, Raina K
    Restif, Olivier
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Peel, Alison J.
    Year published
    2019
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    Pathogen circulation among reservoir hosts is a precondition for zoonotic spillover. Unlike the acute, high morbidity infections typical in spillover hosts, infected reservoir hosts often exhibit low morbidity and mortality. Although it has been proposed that reservoir host infections may be persistent with recurrent episodes of shedding, direct evidence is often lacking. We construct a generalized SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) framework encompassing 46 sub-models representing the full range of possible transitions among those four states of infection and immunity. We then use likelihood-based methods ...
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    Pathogen circulation among reservoir hosts is a precondition for zoonotic spillover. Unlike the acute, high morbidity infections typical in spillover hosts, infected reservoir hosts often exhibit low morbidity and mortality. Although it has been proposed that reservoir host infections may be persistent with recurrent episodes of shedding, direct evidence is often lacking. We construct a generalized SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) framework encompassing 46 sub-models representing the full range of possible transitions among those four states of infection and immunity. We then use likelihood-based methods to fit these models to nine years of longitudinal data on henipavirus serology from a captive colony of Eidolon helvum bats in Ghana. We find that reinfection is necessary to explain observed dynamics; that acute infectious periods may be very short (hours to days); that immunity, if present, lasts about 1-2 years; and that recurring latent infection is likely. Although quantitative inference is sensitive to assumptions about serology, qualitative predictions are robust. Our novel approach helps clarify mechanisms of viral persistence and circulation in wild bats, including estimated ranges for key parameters such as the basic reproduction number and the duration of the infectious period. Our results inform how future field-based and experimental work could differentiate the processes of viral recurrence and reinfection in reservoir hosts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.
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    Journal Title
    Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences
    Volume
    374
    Issue
    1782
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2019.0021
    Copyright Statement
    © 2019 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
    Subject
    Biological Sciences
    Medical and Health Sciences
    Science & Technology
    Life Sciences & Biomedicine
    Biology
    Life Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topics
    disease dynamics
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/397412
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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