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dc.contributor.authorGlennon, Emma E
dc.contributor.authorBecker, Daniel J
dc.contributor.authorPeel, Alison J
dc.contributor.authorGarnier, Romain
dc.contributor.authorSuu-Ire, Richard D
dc.contributor.authorGibson, Louise
dc.contributor.authorHayman, David TS
dc.contributor.authorWood, James LN
dc.contributor.authorCunningham, Andrew A
dc.contributor.authorPlowright, Raina K
dc.contributor.authorRestif, Olivier
dc.date.accessioned2020-09-13T23:42:04Z
dc.date.available2020-09-13T23:42:04Z
dc.date.issued2019
dc.identifier.issn0962-8436en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1098/rstb.2019.0021en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10072/397412
dc.description.abstractPathogen circulation among reservoir hosts is a precondition for zoonotic spillover. Unlike the acute, high morbidity infections typical in spillover hosts, infected reservoir hosts often exhibit low morbidity and mortality. Although it has been proposed that reservoir host infections may be persistent with recurrent episodes of shedding, direct evidence is often lacking. We construct a generalized SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infectious, recovered) framework encompassing 46 sub-models representing the full range of possible transitions among those four states of infection and immunity. We then use likelihood-based methods to fit these models to nine years of longitudinal data on henipavirus serology from a captive colony of Eidolon helvum bats in Ghana. We find that reinfection is necessary to explain observed dynamics; that acute infectious periods may be very short (hours to days); that immunity, if present, lasts about 1-2 years; and that recurring latent infection is likely. Although quantitative inference is sensitive to assumptions about serology, qualitative predictions are robust. Our novel approach helps clarify mechanisms of viral persistence and circulation in wild bats, including estimated ranges for key parameters such as the basic reproduction number and the duration of the infectious period. Our results inform how future field-based and experimental work could differentiate the processes of viral recurrence and reinfection in reservoir hosts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.en_US
dc.description.peerreviewedYesen_US
dc.languageEnglishen_US
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherRoyal Society Publishingen_US
dc.relation.ispartofissue1782en_US
dc.relation.ispartofjournalPhilosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciencesen_US
dc.relation.ispartofvolume374en_US
dc.subject.fieldofresearchBiological Sciencesen_US
dc.subject.fieldofresearchMedical and Health Sciencesen_US
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode06en_US
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode11en_US
dc.subject.keywordsScience & Technologyen_US
dc.subject.keywordsLife Sciences & Biomedicineen_US
dc.subject.keywordsBiologyen_US
dc.subject.keywordsLife Sciences & Biomedicine - Other Topicsen_US
dc.subject.keywordsdisease dynamicsen_US
dc.titleWhat is stirring in the reservoir? Modelling mechanisms of henipavirus circulation in fruit bat hostsen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.type.descriptionC1 - Articlesen_US
dcterms.bibliographicCitationGlennon, EE; Becker, DJ; Peel, AJ; Garnier, R; Suu-Ire, RD; Gibson, L; Hayman, DTS; Wood, JLN; Cunningham, AA; Plowright, RK; Restif, O, What is stirring in the reservoir? Modelling mechanisms of henipavirus circulation in fruit bat hosts, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2019, 374 (1782)en_US
dcterms.licensehttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/en_US
dc.date.updated2020-09-13T23:40:17Z
dc.description.versionVersion of Record (VoR)en_US
gro.rights.copyright© 2019 The Authors. Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.en_US
gro.hasfulltextFull Text
gro.griffith.authorPeel, Alison J.


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