The geographic concentrations of air traffic and economic development: A spatiotemporal analysis of their association and decoupling in Brazil

Abstract

This paper examines the evolution of the geographic concentration of the Brazilian air transport network with a focus on its determinants and possible detachments from the spatial patterns of socioeconomic activity. We develop an econometric framework employing and contrasting the results of Gini, Herfindahl-Hirschman and Theil indexes, with and without normalisation to account for economic and demographic spatial dynamics. Our results suggest that the spatial dynamics of the air network and that of the country's economy and population are strongly tied for the majority of the considered determinants. However, we find suggestive evidence that the time trend after deregulation has produced some asymmetries in the evolution of these dimensions. As such, our analysis presents some implications for airline network planning and regulators, as it offers additional information to be considered for the understanding of extra-economic and extra-demographic impacts which may be inducive of significant changes in air transport markets.