Who changed parties during the Great Recession? A study of 12 Western European countries

Abstract

Electoral volatility levels after the Great Recession of 2008 were record high in most Western European countries. Among the main causes of this electoral instability are the negative development of the economy, the crisis of the traditional parties and the change in the issues of political competition. At the individual level, it is unknown what factors caused voters to change their party preference after the Great Recession. Furthermore, in general, little is known about the differences between a stable and volatile voter. This study of 12 Western European countries after the economic crisis concludes that the economic voter model did not always explain the change in party preference after 2008, while sentiments of political dissatisfaction would help us to understand the change of parties between elections.