2050 And beyond: A futurist perspective on musicians’ livelihoods

Abstract

While it could be argued that musicians have been long conditioned to the current Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and Ambiguous (VUCA) global environment, it appears the recent challenges are testing even the most resilient and adaptable, causing one to question future professional sustainability. The methodological practice of Strategic Foresight and the use of Hajkowicz’s Global Megatrends as a guiding framework is chosen to answer the question ‘what will musicians’ livelihoods look like in 2050?’. Resultant scenarios of musicians’ futures conclude that live performance will be highly valued and in demand, and largely enabled by private funding and repurposed resources. Music, and therefore musicians, will embrace diversity and innovation in physical and digital forms, broadcasting to a global public seeking a more human experience within a non-human environment. The interim decades may see an increasing inclusion of professional non-music careers within one’s portfolio of work, further expanding generic definitions of ‘musician’. However, are experts in the fields of Music Careers and Strategic Foresight eligible to cast opinion? Can Strategic Foresight practice be even remotely applicable in these current postnormal times? Regardless, higher music education is required to adapt, and continue to adapt, by including digital literacy and futures thinking training.