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  • Assessing long-run growth prospects for the UK's regions

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    Embargoed until: 2021-11-03
    Author(s)
    Verikios, George
    Hurst, Ian
    Young, Garry
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Verikios, George
    Year published
    2020
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    The UK faces a number of economic challenges in the short to medium term. Prior to COVID-19, renegotiation of trading arrangements with the European Union was the most prominent of these. We build on existing macroeconomic analysis by assessing prospects for the UK’s regions generated by combining a global macroeconometric model and a regional computable general equilibrium of the UK. A central macroeconomic scenario shows a national average annual GDP growth rate of 1.7 per cent to 2044. When the macroeconomic scenario is applied across regions, growth rates range from 1.6 per cent for Cambridge to 2.2 per cent for ...
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    The UK faces a number of economic challenges in the short to medium term. Prior to COVID-19, renegotiation of trading arrangements with the European Union was the most prominent of these. We build on existing macroeconomic analysis by assessing prospects for the UK’s regions generated by combining a global macroeconometric model and a regional computable general equilibrium of the UK. A central macroeconomic scenario shows a national average annual GDP growth rate of 1.7 per cent to 2044. When the macroeconomic scenario is applied across regions, growth rates range from 1.6 per cent for Cambridge to 2.2 per cent for Pembrokeshire; the standard deviation is low at 0.07 per cent and the coefficient of variation is 0.04 per cent. In contrast, much wider variation is observed in the standard deviation for exports (0.36 per cent), investment (0.11 per cent) and consumption (0.14 per cent). The country results favour Scotland, which grows at an annual rate of 1.8 per cent, whereas Wales is the slowest growing of the countries at 1.7 per cent. Consistent with the macroeconomic analysis, international trade is the most important contributor to the regional variation in growth rates. We also analyse the effects of higher government consumption relative to the forecasts and find most regions are predicted to experience lower economic activity except the handful in which government consumption is a much higher share of GDP than average.
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    Journal Title
    National Institute Economic Review
    Volume
    254
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1017/nie.2020.38
    Copyright Statement
    Verikios, G; Hurst, I; Young, G, Assessing long-run growth prospects for the UK's regions, National Institute Economic Review, 2020, 254, pp. R12-R27. Copyright 2020 The Authors. Reprinted by permission of SAGE Publications.
    Subject
    Economics
    Social Sciences
    computable general equilibrium
    government consumption shock
    Business
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/400577
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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