An Integrative Approach to Tourism Forecasting: A Glance in the Rear View Mirror
Author(s)
Tideswell, Carmen
Mules, Trevor
Faulkner, Herbert
Year published
2001
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
In 1996, the South Australian Tourism Commission initiated a tourism forecasting and economic impact study to assess their future tourism industry potential. The integrative forecasting approach adopted advocates a combination of quantitative top-down and bottom-up approaches, along with a qualitative delphi survey to gather key industry input to the forecasting process. The article provides a retrospective assessment of the forecast accuracy for South Australia@rsquo;s domestic and international tourism markets. Consideration of the most appropriate methods for updating existing state tourism forecasts, based on the South ...
View more >In 1996, the South Australian Tourism Commission initiated a tourism forecasting and economic impact study to assess their future tourism industry potential. The integrative forecasting approach adopted advocates a combination of quantitative top-down and bottom-up approaches, along with a qualitative delphi survey to gather key industry input to the forecasting process. The article provides a retrospective assessment of the forecast accuracy for South Australia@rsquo;s domestic and international tourism markets. Consideration of the most appropriate methods for updating existing state tourism forecasts, based on the South Australian experience, is also made. The findings suggest that the forecast accuracy for both international and domestic visitors was quite high overall. However, this apparent accuracy disguises some significant inaccuracies for particular segments, such as New Zealand and Other Asia, illustrating the difficulty of using time-series-type approaches to tourism forecasting in situations where the numbers are quite small and subject to significant volatility.
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View more >In 1996, the South Australian Tourism Commission initiated a tourism forecasting and economic impact study to assess their future tourism industry potential. The integrative forecasting approach adopted advocates a combination of quantitative top-down and bottom-up approaches, along with a qualitative delphi survey to gather key industry input to the forecasting process. The article provides a retrospective assessment of the forecast accuracy for South Australia@rsquo;s domestic and international tourism markets. Consideration of the most appropriate methods for updating existing state tourism forecasts, based on the South Australian experience, is also made. The findings suggest that the forecast accuracy for both international and domestic visitors was quite high overall. However, this apparent accuracy disguises some significant inaccuracies for particular segments, such as New Zealand and Other Asia, illustrating the difficulty of using time-series-type approaches to tourism forecasting in situations where the numbers are quite small and subject to significant volatility.
View less >
Journal Title
Journal of Travel Research
Volume
40
Publisher URI
Copyright Statement
© 2001 Sage Publications. Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. First published in Journal of Travel Research. This journal is available online: http://jtr.sagepub.com/content/vol40/issue2/
Subject
Commercial Services
Marketing
Tourism