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  • An Integrative Approach to Tourism Forecasting: A Glance in the Rear View Mirror

    Author(s)
    Tideswell, Carmen
    Mules, Trevor
    Faulkner, Herbert
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Faulkner, Herbert W.
    Tideswell, Carmen E.
    Year published
    2001
    Metadata
    Show full item record
    Abstract
    In 1996, the South Australian Tourism Commission initiated a tourism forecasting and economic impact study to assess their future tourism industry potential. The integrative forecasting approach adopted advocates a combination of quantitative top-down and bottom-up approaches, along with a qualitative delphi survey to gather key industry input to the forecasting process. The article provides a retrospective assessment of the forecast accuracy for South Australia@rsquo;s domestic and international tourism markets. Consideration of the most appropriate methods for updating existing state tourism forecasts, based on the South ...
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    In 1996, the South Australian Tourism Commission initiated a tourism forecasting and economic impact study to assess their future tourism industry potential. The integrative forecasting approach adopted advocates a combination of quantitative top-down and bottom-up approaches, along with a qualitative delphi survey to gather key industry input to the forecasting process. The article provides a retrospective assessment of the forecast accuracy for South Australia@rsquo;s domestic and international tourism markets. Consideration of the most appropriate methods for updating existing state tourism forecasts, based on the South Australian experience, is also made. The findings suggest that the forecast accuracy for both international and domestic visitors was quite high overall. However, this apparent accuracy disguises some significant inaccuracies for particular segments, such as New Zealand and Other Asia, illustrating the difficulty of using time-series-type approaches to tourism forecasting in situations where the numbers are quite small and subject to significant volatility.
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    Journal Title
    Journal of Travel Research
    Volume
    40
    Publisher URI
    http://jtr.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/40/2/162
    Copyright Statement
    © 2001 Sage Publications. Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. First published in Journal of Travel Research. This journal is available online: http://jtr.sagepub.com/content/vol40/issue2/
    Subject
    Commercial Services
    Marketing
    Tourism
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/4007
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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