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  • The Interaction of Natural and Vaccine-Induced Immunity with Social Distancing Predicts the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic

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    Version of Record (VoR)
    Author(s)
    Good, Michael F
    Hawkes, Michael T
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Good, Michael F.
    Year published
    2020
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    The existence and nature of immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are currently unknown; however, neutralizing antibodies are thought to play the major role and data from studying other coronaviruses suggest that partial clinical immunity lasting up to 1 year will occur postinfection. We show how immunity, depending on its durability, may work with current social practices to limit the spread of the virus. We further show that a vaccine that is 50% effective and taken by 50% of the population will prevent further loss of life, providing that social distancing is still practiced and that ...
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    The existence and nature of immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are currently unknown; however, neutralizing antibodies are thought to play the major role and data from studying other coronaviruses suggest that partial clinical immunity lasting up to 1 year will occur postinfection. We show how immunity, depending on its durability, may work with current social practices to limit the spread of the virus. We further show that a vaccine that is 50% effective and taken by 50% of the population will prevent further loss of life, providing that social distancing is still practiced and that immunity does not wane quickly.
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    Journal Title
    mBio
    Volume
    11
    Issue
    5
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1128/mBio.02617-20
    Copyright Statement
    © 2020 Good and Hawkes. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
    Subject
    Microbiology
    COVID-19
    SARS-CoV-2
    immunity
    public health
    vaccines
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/402329
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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