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  • Higher moments and US industry returns: realized skewness and kurtosis

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    Chen476955-Accepted.pdf (527.7Kb)
    File version
    Accepted Manuscript (AM)
    Author(s)
    Chen, Xiaoyue
    Li, Bin
    Worthington, Andrew C
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Li, Bin
    Worthington, Andrew C.
    Chen, Xiaoyue
    Year published
    2021
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationships between the higher moments of returns (realized skewness and kurtosis) and subsequent returns at the industry level, with a focus on both empirical predictability and practical application via trading strategies. Design/methodology/approach: Daily returns for 48 US industries over the period 1970–2019 from Kenneth French’s data library are used to calculate the higher moments and to construct short- and medium-term single-sort trading strategies. The analysis adjusts returns for common risk factors (market, size, value, investment, profitability and illiquidity) ...
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    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationships between the higher moments of returns (realized skewness and kurtosis) and subsequent returns at the industry level, with a focus on both empirical predictability and practical application via trading strategies. Design/methodology/approach: Daily returns for 48 US industries over the period 1970–2019 from Kenneth French’s data library are used to calculate the higher moments and to construct short- and medium-term single-sort trading strategies. The analysis adjusts returns for common risk factors (market, size, value, investment, profitability and illiquidity) to confirm whether conventional asset pricing models can capture these relationships. Findings: Past skewness positively relates to subsequent industry returns and this relationship is unexplained by common risk factors. There is also a time-varying effect in which the predictive role of skewness is much stronger over business cycle expansions than recessions, a result consistent with varying investor optimism. However, there is no significant relationship between kurtosis and subsequent industry returns. The analysis confirms robustness using both value- and equal-weighted returns. Research limitations/implications: The calculation of realized moments conventionally uses high-frequency intra-day data, regrettably unavailable for industries. In addition, the chosen portfolio-sorting method may omit some information, as it compares only average group returns. Nonetheless, the close relationship between skewness and future returns at the industry level suggests variations in returns unexplained by common risk factors. This enriches knowledge of market anomalies and questions yet again weak-form market efficiency and the validity of conventional asset pricing models. One suggestion is that it is possible to significantly improve the existing multi-factor asset pricing models by including industry skewness as a risk factor. Practical implications: Given the relationship between skewness and future returns at the industry level, investors may predict subsequent industry returns to select better-performing funds. They may even construct trading strategies based on return distributions that would generate abnormal returns. Further, as the evaluation of individual stocks also contains industry information, and stocks in industries with better performance earn higher returns, risks related to industry return distributions can also shed light on individual stock picking. Originality/value: While there is abundant evidence of the relationships between higher moments and future returns at the firm level, there is little at the industry level. Further, by testing whether there is time variation in the relationship between industry higher moments and future returns, the paper yields novel evidence concerning the asymmetric effect of stock return predictability over business cycles. Finally, the analysis supplements firm-level results focusing only on the decomposed components of higher moments.
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    Journal Title
    Review of Accounting and Finance
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1108/raf-06-2020-0171
    Copyright Statement
    © Emerald Publishing Limited. This author accepted manuscript is deposited under a Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial 4.0 International (CC BY-NC) licence. This means that anyone may distribute, adapt, and build upon the work for non-commercial purposes, subject to full attribution. If you wish to use this manuscript for commercial purposes, please contact permissions@emerald.com.
    Note
    This publication has been entered as an advanced online version in Griffith Research Online.
    Subject
    Accounting, Auditing and Accountability
    Banking, Finance and Investment
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/403550
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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