Preparing for the future we haven't seen coming: Scenario planning as a leadership tool for occupational therapists

Abstract

Aims: This poster introduces the theory and methods behind the practice of scenario planning – the methodical construction of imagined futures to guide strategic decision-making in times of uncertainty – and relates them to challenges facing occupational therapy. Background: The history of scenario planning, particularly in healthcare, will be introduced. Play-based scenario learning in an entry-level occupational therapy programme will be offered as a case study. Finally, the presentation will explore future opportunities for scenario thinking in occupational therapy, including the use of existing scenario sets and the construction of fresh ones to challenge thinking about the future. Critical analysis: The challenges of COVID-19 have highlighted the extent to which occupational therapy faces an uncertain and ambiguous future. As we cannot assume occupational therapy’s future will resemble its present or past, we require tools to identify strategic blindspots and opportunities. Relevance: Scenarios enabled students to recognise the potential scope of the profession and their capacity to creatively apply their skills in even the most wild and challenging future contexts. Scenario work of this type is applicable to broader occupational therapy leadership and has been used in this way in other fields. Conclusion: Scenarios offer a way to find blindspots regarding the future and explore unseen threats and opportunities. For student occupational therapists, it gives insight into their capacity to not only survive but actively shape an uncertain future. Scenario planning with occupational therapy leaders could enrich strategic leadership and ensure we deliver value to society, even in an uncertain future.