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dc.contributor.authorAlipour, M
dc.contributor.authorHafezi, R
dc.contributor.authorAmer, M
dc.contributor.authorAkhavan, AN
dc.date.accessioned2021-10-07T03:41:21Z
dc.date.available2021-10-07T03:41:21Z
dc.date.issued2017
dc.identifier.issn0360-5442
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.energy.2017.06.069
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10072/408716
dc.description.abstractIn today's competitive dynamic world/markets, providing a desirable framework for exploring future perspectives is a crucial challenge to support robust decision making and proper policy making process. This research proposes a novel framework that develops plausible future energy scenarios through the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique. As a new method in scenario planning, FCM attempts to present a set of rational, reliable and credible scenarios together with analyzing dynamic behaviors of parameters. The integrated approach encompasses STEEP analysis to identify parameters, Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) to determine key drivers, Morphological analysis for scenario selection, and FCM to develop semi-quantitative scenarios. The new proposed scenario development approach brings the benefits of both quantitative and qualitative analysis together, which is not limited to the investigation of few pre-defined scenario drivers. As a research case, the proposed methodology was examined to detect plausible trends for Iran's oil production in the post-sanction era. The implemented FCM simulations indicated that in three scenarios oil production rises, as growth would be significant for the first two. The fourth projection is the most pessimistic future that can be imagined in the post-sanction era where the country faces massive investment backlogs.
dc.description.peerreviewedYes
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherElsevier
dc.relation.ispartofpagefrom851
dc.relation.ispartofpageto864
dc.relation.ispartofjournalEnergy
dc.relation.ispartofvolume135
dc.subject.fieldofresearchMechanical engineering
dc.subject.fieldofresearchResources engineering and extractive metallurgy
dc.subject.fieldofresearchOther engineering
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode4017
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode4019
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode4099
dc.subject.keywordsScience & Technology
dc.subject.keywordsPhysical Sciences
dc.subject.keywordsTechnology
dc.subject.keywordsThermodynamics
dc.subject.keywordsEnergy & Fuels
dc.titleA new hybrid fuzzy cognitive map-based scenario planning approach for Iran's oil production pathways in the post-sanction period
dc.typeJournal article
dc.type.descriptionC1 - Articles
dcterms.bibliographicCitationAlipour, M; Hafezi, R; Amer, M; Akhavan, AN, A new hybrid fuzzy cognitive map-based scenario planning approach for Iran's oil production pathways in the post-sanction period, Energy, 2017, 135, pp. 851-864
dc.date.updated2021-10-07T03:40:22Z
gro.hasfulltextNo Full Text
gro.griffith.authorAlipour, Mohammad


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