Developing a model of live cattle and beef trade in South East Asia and China

Abstract

Beef markets and trade in China and Southeast Asia have undergone major change in ways that could not have been envisioned only a decade ago. Unprecedented economic growth and urbanization has resulted in increased beef consumption in parts of the region. For example, between 2000 and 2013, average beef consumption increased by 5.3% in Vietnam and around 4% in China annually, while beef prices increased by 8% and 11% respectively.5 The increases in consumption have not, however, seen a parallel response in cattle numbers. Over the same period, the overall cattle herd in China and Southeast Asia decreased (especially in China which makes up 69% of cattle numbers) for several reasons, including increasing opportunity costs of labour in countries that experienced broad-based growth; largescale farm mechanisation that has reduced the need for draught cattle; and farmers selling cattle to take advantage of high prices. In a regional cattle industry dominated by small-holders, the supply response to rising prices has been muted – especially for cow-calf production – compared to other more commercialised livestock industries (pigs and chickens).