It could rain: weather forecasting as a reasoning process

Abstract

Meteorological forecasting is the process of providing reliable prediction about the future weathear within a given interval of time. Forecasters adopt a model of reasoning that can be mapped onto an integrated conceptual framework. A forecaster essentially precesses data in advance by using some models of machine learning to extract macroscopic tendencies such as air movements, pressure, temperature, and humidity differentials measured in ways that depend upon the model, but fundamentally, as gradientS. Limit values are employed to transform these tendencies in fuzzy values, and then compared to each other in order to extract indicators, and then evaluate these indicators by means of priorities based upon distance in fuzzy valueS. We formalise the method proposed above in a workflow of evaluation steps, and propose an architecture that implements the reasoning techniques.