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  • Progress toward HIV elimination goals: trends in and projections of annual HIV testing and condom use in Africa

    Author(s)
    Nguyen, Phuong T
    Gilmour, Stuart
    Le, Phuong M
    Onishi, Kazunari
    Kato, Kosuke
    Nguyen, Huy
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Nguyen, Huy
    Year published
    2021
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    OBJECTIVES: To estimate trends in and projections of annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex and to calculate the probability of reaching key United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS)'s target. DESIGN: We included 114 nationally-representative datasets in 38 African countries from Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys with 1 456 224 sexually active adults age 15-49 from 2003 to 2018. METHODS: We applied Bayesian mixed effect models to estimate the coverage of annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex for every country and year to 2030 and the probability of ...
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    OBJECTIVES: To estimate trends in and projections of annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex and to calculate the probability of reaching key United Nations Programme on AIDS (UNAIDS)'s target. DESIGN: We included 114 nationally-representative datasets in 38 African countries from Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys with 1 456 224 sexually active adults age 15-49 from 2003 to 2018. METHODS: We applied Bayesian mixed effect models to estimate the coverage of annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex for every country and year to 2030 and the probability of reaching UNAIDS testing and condom use targets of 95% coverage by 2030. RESULTS: Seven countries saw downward trends in annual HIV testing and four saw decreases in condom use at higher-risk sex, whereas most countries have upward trends in both indicators. The highest coverage of testing in 2030 is predicted in Swaziland with 92.6% (95% credible interval: 74.5-98.1%), Uganda with 90.5% (72.2-97.2%), and Lesotho with 90.5% (69.4%-97.6%). Meanwhile, Swaziland, Lesotho, and Namibia will have the highest proportion of condom use in 2030 at 85.0% (57.8-96.1%), 75.6% (42.3-93.6%), and 75.5% (42.4-93.2%). The probabilities of reaching targets were very low for both HIV testing (0-28.5%) and condom use (0-12.1%). CONCLUSIONS: We observed limited progress on annual HIV testing and condom use at last higher-risk sex in Africa and little prospect of reaching global targets for HIV/AIDS elimination. Although some funding agencies are considering withdrawal from supporting Africa, more attention to funding and expanding testing and treatment is needed in this region.
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    Journal Title
    AIDS
    Volume
    35
    Issue
    8
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000002870
    Subject
    Health policy
    Public health
    Sociology of health
    Biological sciences
    Biomedical and clinical sciences
    Psychology
    Science & Technology
    Life Sciences & Biomedicine
    Immunology
    Infectious Diseases
    Virology
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/413229
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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