National testing of probability in Years 3, 5, 7 & 9 in Australia: A critical analysis

Abstract

This paper provides a critical analysis of the probability questions in the 2009 & 2010 NAPLAN numeracy tests for Years 3, 5, 7, and 9 from a number of perspectives. The analysis revealed that probability is under-represented in recent NAPLAN tests, with only one probability item included in each year level in the 2010 test. The items reveal a limited focus regarding type of task and response method. There is poor coverage of the National Statements of Learning in Mathematics (Curriculum Corporation, 2006), and weak alignment with the constructs in the Probabilistic Reasoning Framework (Jones et al, 1997).