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dc.contributor.authorBond, Nick
dc.contributor.authorThomson, Jim
dc.contributor.authorReich, Paul
dc.contributor.authorStein, Janet
dc.date.accessioned2017-05-03T13:12:19Z
dc.date.available2017-05-03T13:12:19Z
dc.date.issued2011
dc.date.modified2012-03-09T05:54:22Z
dc.identifier.issn1323-1650
dc.identifier.doi10.1071/MF10286
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10072/43528
dc.description.abstractThere are few quantitative predictions for the impacts of climate change on freshwater fish in Australia. We developed species distribution models (SDMs) linking historical fish distributions for 43 species from Victorian streams to a suite of hydro-climatic and catchment predictors, and applied these models to explore predicted range shifts under future climate-change scenarios. Here, we present summary results for the 43 species, together with a more detailed analysis for a subset of species with distinct distributions in relation to temperature and hydrology. Range shifts increased from the lower to upper climate-change scenarios, with most species predicted to undergo some degree of range shift. Changes in total occupancy ranged from 38% to % under the lower climate-change scenario to 47% to 2% under the upper climate-change scenario. We do, however, caution that range expansions are more putative than range contractions, because the effects of barriers, limited dispersal and potential life-history factors are likely to exclude some areas from being colonised. As well as potentially informing more mechanistic modelling approaches, quantitative predictions such as these should be seen as representing hypotheses to be tested and discussed, and should be valuable for informing longterm strategies to protect aquatic biota.
dc.description.peerreviewedYes
dc.description.publicationstatusYes
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherC S I R O Publishing
dc.publisher.placeAustralia
dc.relation.ispartofstudentpublicationN
dc.relation.ispartofpagefrom1043
dc.relation.ispartofpageto1061
dc.relation.ispartofissue9
dc.relation.ispartofjournalMarine & Freshwater Research: advances in the aquatic sciences
dc.relation.ispartofvolume62
dc.rights.retentionY
dc.subject.fieldofresearchFreshwater ecology
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode310304
dc.titleUsing species distribution models to infer potential climate change-induced range shifts of Freshwater fish in south-eastern Australia
dc.typeJournal article
dc.type.descriptionC1 - Articles
dc.type.codeC - Journal Articles
gro.facultyGriffith Sciences, Griffith School of Environment
gro.date.issued2011
gro.hasfulltextNo Full Text
gro.griffith.authorBond, Nick R.


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