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  • International Trade and Economic Growth Nexus in Australia: A Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators

    Author(s)
    Singh, Tarlok
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Singh, Tarlok
    Year published
    2011
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    This study examines the effects of international trade on output and tests the null of Granger non-causality between trade and economic growth in Australia. The single-equation IV-GMM, DOLS, FMOLS and NLLS and the system-based ML estimates consistently support the positive and significant long-run effects of exports and investment on output. The effects of imports are consistently negative across all the estimates. The OLSEG, RLS and ARDL-ECM estimates provide a mixed and weak and that overparameterised level-VAR estimates no support for the effects of trade on output. The estimates of the model with structural breaks provide ...
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    This study examines the effects of international trade on output and tests the null of Granger non-causality between trade and economic growth in Australia. The single-equation IV-GMM, DOLS, FMOLS and NLLS and the system-based ML estimates consistently support the positive and significant long-run effects of exports and investment on output. The effects of imports are consistently negative across all the estimates. The OLSEG, RLS and ARDL-ECM estimates provide a mixed and weak and that overparameterised level-VAR estimates no support for the effects of trade on output. The estimates of the model with structural breaks provide a dominant support for the cointegrating relationship among variables. In conclusion, the evidence supporting the positive and significant long-run effects overwhelms the evidence providing a mixed, weak or no support for the effects of trade on output. The results of the study can be inductively generalised to mimic the findings of the literature at large and to suggest that a part of the inconclusiveness over the gains of trade could analogously be ascribed to the use of different methodologies and test statistics across studies. The results support the acceleration of exports and investment to foster the higher levels of output and economic growth.
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    Journal Title
    The World Economy
    Volume
    34
    Issue
    8
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2011.01341.x
    Subject
    Applied economics
    Policy and administration
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/43722
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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