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  • An intelligence assessment framework for identifying individuals at risk of committing acts of violent extremism against the West

    Author(s)
    Kebbell, Mark R
    Porter, Louise
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Kebbell, Mark R.
    Porter, Louise E.
    Year published
    2012
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    This article aims to review the potential of a risk assessment model for the purpose of counter-terrorism intelligence gathering, and discuss potential factors. First the literature on offender profi ling is reviewed and applied to Islamist violent extremism. The difficulty of applying this approach to general offending is noted, particularly with regard to predictive accuracy and the fact that infl uential situational factors are often unknown. Next, risk assessment ' models ' for identifying risk in general offenders are outlined and applied to violent extremism. There is not sufficient evidence to create a risk assessment ...
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    This article aims to review the potential of a risk assessment model for the purpose of counter-terrorism intelligence gathering, and discuss potential factors. First the literature on offender profi ling is reviewed and applied to Islamist violent extremism. The difficulty of applying this approach to general offending is noted, particularly with regard to predictive accuracy and the fact that infl uential situational factors are often unknown. Next, risk assessment ' models ' for identifying risk in general offenders are outlined and applied to violent extremism. There is not sufficient evidence to create a risk assessment model to predict who is intending to commit violent extremism and distinguish them from those who are not. However, from a review of the available literature, a number of factors, mainly attitudinal, appear to be associated with increased risk of violent extremism including beliefs by violent extremists that they are retaliating, that potential victims are less than human, and that their actions are religiously justifi ed. In addition, violent extremists isolate themselves from positive infl uences, have a capability for violence and typically access violent materials. Factors are outlined in turn and discussed in light of how this information might be usefully applied within an intelligence-led counter-terrorism context and the associated limitations.
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    Journal Title
    Security Journal
    Volume
    25
    Issue
    3
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1057/sj.2011.19
    Subject
    Criminology
    Causes and prevention of crime
    Forensic psychology
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/44141
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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