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dc.contributor.authorMeng, Qiangen_US
dc.contributor.authorWeng, Jinxianen_US
dc.contributor.authorQu, Xiaoboen_US
dc.date.accessioned2017-05-03T16:09:47Z
dc.date.available2017-05-03T16:09:47Z
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.date.modified2012-05-21T22:25:41Z
dc.identifier.issn00014575en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.aap.2010.05.007en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10072/44186
dc.description.abstractWork zones especially long-term work zones increase traffic conflicts and cause safety problems. Proper casualty risk assessment for a work zone is of importance for both traffic safety engineers and travelers. This paper develops a novel probabilistic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model to evaluate the casualty risk combining frequency and consequence of all accident scenarios triggered by long-term work zone crashes. The casualty risk is measured by the individual risk and societal risk. The individual risk can be interpreted as the frequency of a driver/passenger being killed or injured, and the societal risk describes the relation between frequency and the number of casualties. The proposed probabilistic QRA model consists of the estimation of work zone crash frequency, an event tree and consequence estimation models. There are seven intermediate events - age (A), crash unit (CU), vehicle type (VT), alcohol (AL), light condition (LC), crash type (CT) and severity (S) - in the event tree. Since the estimated value of probability for some intermediate event may have large uncertainty, the uncertainty can thus be characterized by a random variable. The consequence estimation model takes into account the combination effects of speed and emergency medical service response time (ERT) on the consequence of work zone crash. Finally, a numerical example based on the Southeast Michigan work zone crash data is carried out. The numerical results show that there will be a 62% decrease of individual fatality risk and 44% reduction of individual injury risk if the mean travel speed is slowed down by 20%. In addition, there will be a 5% reduction of individual fatality risk and 0.05% reduction of individual injury risk if ERT is reduced by 20%. In other words, slowing down speed is more effective than reducing ERT in the casualty risk mitigation.en_US
dc.description.peerreviewedYesen_US
dc.description.publicationstatusYesen_US
dc.format.extent325372 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.languageEnglishen_US
dc.language.isoen_US
dc.publisherElsevier Ltden_US
dc.publisher.placeUnited kingdomen_US
dc.relation.ispartofstudentpublicationNen_US
dc.relation.ispartofpagefrom1866en_US
dc.relation.ispartofpageto1877en_US
dc.relation.ispartofissue6en_US
dc.relation.ispartofjournalAccident Analysis and Preventionen_US
dc.relation.ispartofvolume42en_US
dc.rights.retentionYen_US
dc.subject.fieldofresearchTransport Engineeringen_US
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode090507en_US
dc.titleA probabilistic quantitative risk assessment model for the long-term work zone crashesen_US
dc.typeJournal articleen_US
dc.type.descriptionC1 - Peer Reviewed (HERDC)en_US
dc.type.codeC - Journal Articlesen_US
gro.rights.copyrightCopyright 2010 Elsevier. This is the author-manuscript version of this paper. Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the journal's website for access to the definitive, published version.en_US
gro.date.issued2010
gro.hasfulltextFull Text


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