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  • Re-Examining the Functional Form of the Certainty Effect in Deterrence Theory

    Author(s)
    Loughran, Thomas A
    Pogarsky, Greg
    Piquero, Alex R
    Paternoster, Raymond
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Piquero, Alex R.
    Year published
    2012
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    In this paper we explore the functional form of the risk-certainty effect for deterrence. Using a sample of serious youth offenders, we first estimate a simple linear model of the relationship between the perceived certainty of punishment and self-reported offending. Consistent with previous literature we 10 find evidence of a moderate deterrent effect. We then examined whether, consistent with a linear model, the effect of perceived risk is truly constant at different ranges of the risk continuum. Estimating a nonparametric regression model that makes no a priori assumption about the functional form of the model but ...
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    In this paper we explore the functional form of the risk-certainty effect for deterrence. Using a sample of serious youth offenders, we first estimate a simple linear model of the relationship between the perceived certainty of punishment and self-reported offending. Consistent with previous literature we 10 find evidence of a moderate deterrent effect. We then examined whether, consistent with a linear model, the effect of perceived risk is truly constant at different ranges of the risk continuum. Estimating a nonparametric regression model that makes no a priori assumption about the functional form of the model but allows the data itself to yield the appropriate functional form, we 15 found marked departures from linearity. Our examination showed evidence of both a tipping effect, whereby perceived risk deters only when it reaches a certain threshold (between an estimated risk of .3 and .4) and a substantially accelerated deterrent effect for individuals at the high end of the risk contin- uum. Perceived sanction threats did, however, have a non-trivial deterrent 20 effect within the mid-range of risk. The implications of our findings for both theory and additional research are discussed.
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    Journal Title
    Justice Quarterly
    Volume
    29
    Issue
    5
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1080/07418825.2011.583931
    Subject
    Causes and Prevention of Crime
    Criminology
    Law
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/44647
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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