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  • Analyses and Implications of Accidents in Singapore Strait

    Author(s)
    Qu, Xiaobo
    Meng, Qiang
    Li, Suyi
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Qu, Xiaobo
    Year published
    2012
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    This paper aims to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents that have occurred in the Singapore Strait over the past 10 years on the basis of two maritime accident databases: Global Integrated Shipping Information System and Lloyd's List Intelligence. After an evaluation of the incompleteness of these two databases, a novel and tangible method is proposed to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents by using Bayesian analysis under mild assumptions. This method produces the following three important results. First, the annual maritime accident occurrence frequency in the Singapore ...
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    This paper aims to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents that have occurred in the Singapore Strait over the past 10 years on the basis of two maritime accident databases: Global Integrated Shipping Information System and Lloyd's List Intelligence. After an evaluation of the incompleteness of these two databases, a novel and tangible method is proposed to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents by using Bayesian analysis under mild assumptions. This method produces the following three important results. First, the annual maritime accident occurrence frequency in the Singapore Strait ranges from 17.6 to 33.0; that is, less than 0.005% of vessels could be involved in an accident when passing through the Strait. Second, the reporting performances of both maritime accident databases to the Singapore Strait are less than 62.5%. In other words, more than 37.5% of maritime accidents are not included in the database. Third, ship collisions account for more than 50% of all types of accidents; this result indicates that a high priority should be assigned to reducing the occurrence of ship collisions by enhancing the navigational systems in the Singapore Strait.
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    Journal Title
    Transportation Research Record
    Volume
    2273
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.3141/2273-13
    Copyright Statement
    Self-archiving of the author-manuscript version is not yet supported by this journal. Please refer to the journal link for access to the definitive, published version or contact the authors for more information.
    Subject
    Civil engineering
    Transport engineering
    Urban and regional planning
    Transportation, logistics and supply chains
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/49631
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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