Analyses and Implications of Accidents in Singapore Strait
Author(s)
Qu, Xiaobo
Meng, Qiang
Li, Suyi
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2012
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
This paper aims to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents that have occurred in the Singapore Strait over the past 10 years on the basis of two maritime accident databases: Global Integrated Shipping Information System and Lloyd's List Intelligence. After an evaluation of the incompleteness of these two databases, a novel and tangible method is proposed to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents by using Bayesian analysis under mild assumptions. This method produces the following three important results. First, the annual maritime accident occurrence frequency in the Singapore ...
View more >This paper aims to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents that have occurred in the Singapore Strait over the past 10 years on the basis of two maritime accident databases: Global Integrated Shipping Information System and Lloyd's List Intelligence. After an evaluation of the incompleteness of these two databases, a novel and tangible method is proposed to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents by using Bayesian analysis under mild assumptions. This method produces the following three important results. First, the annual maritime accident occurrence frequency in the Singapore Strait ranges from 17.6 to 33.0; that is, less than 0.005% of vessels could be involved in an accident when passing through the Strait. Second, the reporting performances of both maritime accident databases to the Singapore Strait are less than 62.5%. In other words, more than 37.5% of maritime accidents are not included in the database. Third, ship collisions account for more than 50% of all types of accidents; this result indicates that a high priority should be assigned to reducing the occurrence of ship collisions by enhancing the navigational systems in the Singapore Strait.
View less >
View more >This paper aims to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents that have occurred in the Singapore Strait over the past 10 years on the basis of two maritime accident databases: Global Integrated Shipping Information System and Lloyd's List Intelligence. After an evaluation of the incompleteness of these two databases, a novel and tangible method is proposed to estimate the lower and upper bounds of the number of accidents by using Bayesian analysis under mild assumptions. This method produces the following three important results. First, the annual maritime accident occurrence frequency in the Singapore Strait ranges from 17.6 to 33.0; that is, less than 0.005% of vessels could be involved in an accident when passing through the Strait. Second, the reporting performances of both maritime accident databases to the Singapore Strait are less than 62.5%. In other words, more than 37.5% of maritime accidents are not included in the database. Third, ship collisions account for more than 50% of all types of accidents; this result indicates that a high priority should be assigned to reducing the occurrence of ship collisions by enhancing the navigational systems in the Singapore Strait.
View less >
Journal Title
Transportation Research Record
Volume
2273
Copyright Statement
Self-archiving of the author-manuscript version is not yet supported by this journal. Please refer to the journal link for access to the definitive, published version or contact the authors for more information.
Subject
Civil engineering
Transport engineering
Urban and regional planning
Transportation, logistics and supply chains