Technical trading with open interest: evidence from the German market

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Author(s)
Lubnau, TM
Todorova, N
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2012
Metadata
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This article investigates whether options' open interest can be incorporated successfully into technical trading strategies. A set of 2040 trading rules is applied to the German index DAX 30 and to the 10 German stocks with the highest market capitalization. The results show that open interest rules, when combined with information from the spot market, can improve the predictive power of technical trading rules. Both put and call open interest appear to contain information regarding future equity prices while the open interest differential performs very poorly. Best results are achieved for the DAX index, showing ...
View more >This article investigates whether options' open interest can be incorporated successfully into technical trading strategies. A set of 2040 trading rules is applied to the German index DAX 30 and to the 10 German stocks with the highest market capitalization. The results show that open interest rules, when combined with information from the spot market, can improve the predictive power of technical trading rules. Both put and call open interest appear to contain information regarding future equity prices while the open interest differential performs very poorly. Best results are achieved for the DAX index, showing economically significant profits even when transaction costs are taken into account whereas the results are more mixed for individual options. Across all assets, out-of-the-money (OTM) calls and in-the-money (ITM) puts exhibit the strongest forecasting power for the utilized rules.
View less >
View more >This article investigates whether options' open interest can be incorporated successfully into technical trading strategies. A set of 2040 trading rules is applied to the German index DAX 30 and to the 10 German stocks with the highest market capitalization. The results show that open interest rules, when combined with information from the spot market, can improve the predictive power of technical trading rules. Both put and call open interest appear to contain information regarding future equity prices while the open interest differential performs very poorly. Best results are achieved for the DAX index, showing economically significant profits even when transaction costs are taken into account whereas the results are more mixed for individual options. Across all assets, out-of-the-money (OTM) calls and in-the-money (ITM) puts exhibit the strongest forecasting power for the utilized rules.
View less >
Journal Title
Applied Financial Economics
Volume
22
Issue
10
Copyright Statement
© 2012 Taylor & Francis. This is an electronic version of an article published in Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 22(10), 2012, pp. 791-809. Applied Financial Economics is available online at: http://www.tandfonline.com with the open URL of your article.
Subject
Applied economics
Financial economics
Banking, finance and investment