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  • An Integrated Method for Probabilistic Bridge Deterioration Modelling

    Author(s)
    Bu, Guoping
    Lee, Jaeho
    Guan, Hong
    Loo, Yew-Chaye
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Loo, Yew-Chaye
    Guan, Hong
    Lee, Jaeho
    Bu, Guoping
    Year published
    2012
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    In order to minimise the shortcomings of long-term predictions of bridge deterioration due to insufficient data, this paper presents an integrated method to build a reliable transition probability for predicting long-term performance of bridge elements. A selection process is developed in this method to automatically select the suitable prediction approach for a given situation of condition data. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based Backward Prediction Model (BPM) is also employed for effective performance prediction when element inspection records are insufficient. A benchmark example is presented in this paper to ...
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    In order to minimise the shortcomings of long-term predictions of bridge deterioration due to insufficient data, this paper presents an integrated method to build a reliable transition probability for predicting long-term performance of bridge elements. A selection process is developed in this method to automatically select the suitable prediction approach for a given situation of condition data. An Artificial Neural Network (ANN)-based Backward Prediction Model (BPM) is also employed for effective performance prediction when element inspection records are insufficient. A benchmark example is presented in this paper to demonstrate how the BPM-generated missing historical data together with available inspection data can be used as input for a state-based model in the integrated method. The outcome demonstrates that BPM-generated historical data, together with available data, can improve the reliability of transition probabilities, and in turn improve the reliability of long-term predictions.
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    Conference Title
    Australasian Structural Engineering Conference 2012
    Publisher URI
    http://asec2012.conference.net.au/welcome.php
    Subject
    Infrastructure Engineering and Asset Management
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/52267
    Collection
    • Conference outputs

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