Using Prediction to Improve Elective Surgery Scheduling

Abstract

Stochastic activity durations, uncertainty in the arrival process of patients, and coordination of multiple activities are some key features of surgery planning and scheduling. In this paper we provide an overview of challenges around elective surgery scheduling and propose a predictive model for elective surgery scheduling to be evaluated in a major tertiary hospital in Queensland. The proposed model employs waiting lists, peri-operative information, workload predictions, and improved procedure time estimation models, to optimise surgery scheduling. It is expected that the resulting improvement in scheduling processes will lead to more efficient use of surgical suites, higher productivity, and lower labour costs, and ultimately improve patient outcomes.