A spatial temporal decision framework for adaptation to sea level rise

Abstract

There is a strong link between decision making and environmental stresses. Two dilemmas confront decision makers: how and when to adapt to sea level rise, due to complexities of environmental systems and the changing nature of the decision making process. This process is inherently complex and often involves many stakeholders with conflicting views. Considering the complexity and dynamic nature of coastal systems, this paper introduces a Spatial Temporal Decision framework to assess coastal vulnerability, and the adaptation alternatives to SLR. The STD is based upon a combination of: System Dynamics modelling; Geographical Information Systems modelling; and multicriteria analyses of stakeholders' views using the Analytical Hierarchy Process. For case study analyses, the City of the Gold Coast located in Southeast Queensland, Australia has been selected. The results of the vulnerability assessment indicate that, at the end of a 100 year simulation period, approximately 6% of the landscape in the study area will be gradually inundated over time, with 0.5 cm rise per year. However, the percentage of the vulnerable area leapt to about 34% for Scenario 2, and 56% for Scenario 3, which represent 1 cm and 1.5 cm rise per year. Using the information obtained from vulnerability assessments, three stakeholder groups (Politicians, Experts and Residents) were consulted to determine the goal, criteria and adaptation alternatives for the multicriteria analyses. Analyses of survey data reveal that across the three stakeholder groups, Effectiveness and Sustainability are the criteria of highest priority.