Typical Deterministic and Stochastic Bridge Deterioration Modelling Incorporating Backward Prediction Model

Abstract

A backward prediction model (BPM) has been developed to generate the missing bridge condition ratings in past years, thereby ensuring adequate condition data as required in long-term performance modelling. The BPM establishes a correlation between the known condition ratings and the non-bridge factors, including climate condition, traffic volume and population growth. The aim of this study is to confirm the ability of BPM in improving the prediction accuracy using the existing bridge deterioration models. The prediction accuracies of typical deterministic and stochastic bridge deterioration models are compared when different sets of BPM-generated historical condition ratings are used as input. Comparisons indicate that the prediction error decreases as more historical condition ratings are made available. Notwithstanding the above findings, several limitations of the current deterministic and stochastic bridge deterioration models are also worth noting and further research is essential to improve the prediction accuracy of bridge deterioration modelling.