Integrated Modelling Approach for Climate Change Adaptation: The Case of Surf Life Saving Australia

Abstract

Surf Life Saving Australia (SLSA) is Australia's main water safety and rescue authority whose assets and operations include 310 local surf lifesaving clubs and about 150,000 trained volunteers. Rising sea level and increased extreme events frequency pose serious threats to SLSA's assets and facilities. Therefore, this research aims to explore adaptation pathways and strengthen the capacity of SLSA to tackle these threats. However, adaptation to climate change is very complex and encompasses a range of constraints such as reliable data, information, time and uncertainty which make quantification quite difficult. To overcome these challenges, the research team has utilised an array of techniques into a cohesive approach including participatory workshops, MIC-MAC and System Dynamics (SD). Through stakeholder engagement (workshops) and structural analysis (MIC-MAC), key variables were identified and an influence dependence chart (causal relationship) was created. Then, using an SD approach, first a conceptual model was built to understand potential values of SLSAs services given sea level rise (SLR) controls, adaption options, and feedbacks within and between the climate change and SLSA operations. The SD model consists of three interactive sub-models: a) Climate change; b) SLSA Operation; and c) Community. The climate change sub-model, under a range of SLR scenarios, simulates changes in storm events frequencies which are vital to SLSA's operation and assets. Therefore, adaptation investment on all forms of accessibility would reduce the impact of extreme storm events on a club's operation. A community sub-model is used to understand the impacts of changing climate, specifically resulting extreme events, on community located around clubs.