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  • Provincial business cycles and fiscal policy in China

    Author(s)
    Carmignani, Fabrizio
    Laurenceson, James S
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Carmignani, Fabrizio
    Year published
    2013
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    We characterize the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in China along two related dimensions. First, we estimate the sign and size of the fiscal policy multiplier. Second, we assess whether fiscal policy is conducted pro- or counter-cyclically. To account for the challenges posed by China's vast geography, we use data at the provincial level. We find that (i) fiscal policy generally has 'Keynesian' effects, and (ii) fiscal policy is mostly conducted pro-cyclically. This means that fiscal policy is more an element of destabilization than a tool for stabilizationWe characterize the cyclical properties of fiscal policy in China along two related dimensions. First, we estimate the sign and size of the fiscal policy multiplier. Second, we assess whether fiscal policy is conducted pro- or counter-cyclically. To account for the challenges posed by China's vast geography, we use data at the provincial level. We find that (i) fiscal policy generally has 'Keynesian' effects, and (ii) fiscal policy is mostly conducted pro-cyclically. This means that fiscal policy is more an element of destabilization than a tool for stabilization
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    Journal Title
    Economics of Transition
    Volume
    21
    Issue
    2
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12010
    Subject
    Macroeconomics (incl. Monetary and Fiscal Theory)
    Applied Economics
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/56031
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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