Assessment of CGCM 3.1 wind field in the Persian Gulf

Abstract

Increasing of the greenhouse gases emission causes the climate changes. Therefore, usage of the marine renewable energy resources such as wind and wave energies has been increased during the last decades. Climate variability can change the wind and consequently wave patterns and the available energy amounts. Therefore, assessment of the potential effect of climate change on the wind regime is important. In this paper, wind characteristics obtained from a global climate model (CGCM 3.1) is used for assessing the effects of climate change on the wind regime in the Persian Gulf. CGCM 3.1 results were compared quantitatively with those of ECMWF in the Persian Gulf and the results showed that in comparison to ECMWF, CGCM 3.1 wind speeds are mostly underestimated for both average and maximum values. Dominant wind directions represented by two wind fields are nearly similar except for a point located in Strait of Hormuz. Variations of the annual wind speed in this area were also evaluated until 2100 and time series of annual averages of the wind speeds and statistical analysis indicate a decreasing trend in all points in the domain. Variation of wind speed frequency based on CGCM 3.1 winds was also assessed for different intervals and the results showed that the variations of wind speed frequencies are marginal. Although there is a insignificant reduction in the average wind speed, this can lead to large variations in the wind and wave energies and also extreme values of wave characteristics.