Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorHu, W
dc.contributor.authorNicholls, N
dc.contributor.authorLindsay, M
dc.contributor.authorDale, P
dc.contributor.authorMcMichael, AJ
dc.contributor.authorMackenzie, JS
dc.contributor.authorTong, S
dc.contributor.editorDr. James W Kazura
dc.date.accessioned2017-05-03T11:11:23Z
dc.date.available2017-05-03T11:11:23Z
dc.date.issued2004
dc.identifier.issn0002-9637
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10072/5671
dc.description.abstractThis paper describes the development of an empirical model to forecast epidemics of Ross River virus (RRV) disease using the multivariate seasonal auto-regressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) technique in Brisbane, Australia. We obtained computerized data on notified RRV disease cases, climate, high tide, and population sizes in Brisbane for the period 1985 - 2001 from the Queensland Department of Health, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the Queensland Department of Transport, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. The SARIMA model was developed and validated by dividing the data file into two data sets: the data between January 1985 and December 2000 were used to construct a model, and those between January and December 2001 to validate it. The SARIMA models show that monthly precipitation (ߠ= 0.004, P = 0.031) was significantly associated with RRV transmission. However, there was no significant association between other climate variables (e.g., temperature, relative humidity, and high tides) and RRV transmission. The predictive values in the model were generally consistent with actual values (root mean square percentage error = 0.94%). Therefore, this model may have applications as a decision supportive tool in disease control and risk-management planning programs.
dc.description.peerreviewedYes
dc.description.publicationstatusYes
dc.format.extent575789 bytes
dc.format.extent35013 bytes
dc.format.mimetypeapplication/pdf
dc.format.mimetypetext/plain
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherThe American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
dc.publisher.placeUSA
dc.publisher.urihttp://www.ajtmh.org/content/71/2/129.abstract
dc.relation.ispartofpagefrom129
dc.relation.ispartofpageto137
dc.relation.ispartofissue2
dc.relation.ispartofjournalAmerican Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene
dc.relation.ispartofvolume71
dc.subject.fieldofresearchBiomedical and clinical sciences
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode32
dc.titleDevelopment of a predictive model for Ross River virus disease in Brisbane, Australia
dc.typeJournal article
dc.type.descriptionC1 - Articles
dc.type.codeC - Journal Articles
gro.rights.copyright© 2004 American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. The attached file is reproduced here in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the journal's website for access to the definitive, published version.
gro.date.issued2015-02-05T03:44:06Z
gro.hasfulltextFull Text
gro.griffith.authorDale, Patricia E.


Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

  • Journal articles
    Contains articles published by Griffith authors in scholarly journals.

Show simple item record