Short-Term Predictive Validity of the Static-99 and Static-99-R for Indigenous and Nonindigenous Australian Sexual Offenders
Actuarial risk assessment (Static-99 and Static-99-R) scores were obtained for 399 Australian adult sexual offenders who were subsequently released from prison and followed up with searches of police arrest records (mean follow-up period = 29 months; range = 15-53 months). Indigenous offenders (n = 67; 16.8%) scored significantly higher on both the Static-99 (M = 4.04 vs. 2.89, p < .001) and Static-99-R (M = 3.72 vs. 2.22, p < .001), were more than twice as likely to be arrested for sexual offenses (9.0% vs. 4.1%, ns), and were significantly more likely to be arrested for nonsexual violent (28.4% vs. 1.9%, p < .001), any violent (including sexual; 37% vs. 5.9%, p < .001), and any offenses (58.2% vs. 21.6%, p < .001). For the combined groups, predictive accuracy of both instruments was comparable to results reported elsewhere. Predictive accuracy of the Static-99 was similar for indigenous and nonindigenous offenders. The Static-99-R was only marginally predictive of any violent recidivism (AUC = .65, 95% CI = [.52, .79]), and did not predict sexual (AUC = .61, 95% CI = [.45, .77]) or nonsexual violent recidivism (AUC = .65, 95% CI = [.48, .78]), for indigenous offenders. Higher risk scores, indigenous race, and unsupervised release all contributed unique variance to any violent recidivism. Results suggest that the Static-99 may be appropriate for assessing Australian indigenous sexual offenders, but more research is needed to test the validity of the Static-99-R for this population. We conclude that practitioners should consider the potential effects of racial differences and postrelease factors, as well as static risk factors, in their assessments.
Causes and Prevention of Crime