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  • Investigating the Effects of Food Available and Climatic Variables on the Animal Host Density of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Changsha, China

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    Author(s)
    Xiao, Hong
    Liu, Hai-Ning
    Gao, Li-Dong
    Huang, Cun-Rui
    Li, Zhou
    Lin, Xiao-Ling
    Chen, Bi-Yun
    Tian, Huai-Yu
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Huang, Cunrui
    Year published
    2013
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    Abstract
    Background The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by population dynamics of its main host, rodents. It is therefore important to better understand rodents' characteristic in epidemic areas. Methodology/Principal Findings We examined the potential impact of food available and climatic variability on HFRS rodent host and developed forecasting models. Monthly rodent density of HFRS host and climate data in Changsha from January 2004 to December 2011 were obtained. Monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) for rice paddies were ...
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    Background The transmission of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is influenced by population dynamics of its main host, rodents. It is therefore important to better understand rodents' characteristic in epidemic areas. Methodology/Principal Findings We examined the potential impact of food available and climatic variability on HFRS rodent host and developed forecasting models. Monthly rodent density of HFRS host and climate data in Changsha from January 2004 to December 2011 were obtained. Monthly normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature vegetation dryness index (TVDI) for rice paddies were extracted from MODIS data. Cross-correlation analysis were carried out to explore correlation between climatic variables and food available with monthly rodent data. We used auto-regressive integrated moving average model with explanatory variables to examine the independent contribution of climatic variables and food supply to rodent density. The results indicated that relative rodent density of HFRS host was significantly correlated with monthly mean temperatures, monthly accumulative precipitation, TVDI and NDVI with lags of 1-6 months. Conclusions/Significance Food available plays a significant role in population fluctuations of HFRS host in Changsha. The model developed in this study has implications for HFRS control and prevention.
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    Journal Title
    PloS One
    Volume
    8
    Issue
    4
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0061536
    Copyright Statement
    © 2013 Xiao et al. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License CCAL. (http://www.plos.org/journals/license.html)
    Subject
    Environmental and Occupational Health and Safety
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/60393
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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