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  • Origin and fate of A/H1N1 influenza in Scotland during 2009

    Author(s)
    Lycett, Samantha
    J. McLeish, Nigel
    Robertson, Christopher
    Carman, William
    Baillie, Gregory
    McMenamin, James
    Rambaut, Andrew
    Simmonds, Peter
    Woolhouse, Mark
    J. Leigh Brown, Andrew
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Baillie, Greg
    Year published
    2012
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    The spread of influenza has usually been described by a 'density' model, where the largest centres of population drive the epidemic within a country. An alternative model emphasizing the role of air travel has recently been developed. We have examined the relative importance of the two in the context of the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic in Scotland. We obtained genome sequences of 70 strains representative of the geographical and temporal distribution of H1N1 influenza during the summer and winter phases of the pandemic in 2009. We analysed these strains, together with another 128 from the rest of the UK and 292 globally ...
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    The spread of influenza has usually been described by a 'density' model, where the largest centres of population drive the epidemic within a country. An alternative model emphasizing the role of air travel has recently been developed. We have examined the relative importance of the two in the context of the 2009 H1N1 influenza epidemic in Scotland. We obtained genome sequences of 70 strains representative of the geographical and temporal distribution of H1N1 influenza during the summer and winter phases of the pandemic in 2009. We analysed these strains, together with another 128 from the rest of the UK and 292 globally distributed strains, using maximum-likelihood phylogenetic and Bayesian phylogeographical methods. This revealed strikingly different epidemic patterns within Scotland in the early and late parts of 2009. The summer epidemic in Scotland was characterized by multiple independent introductions from both international and other UK sources, followed by major local expansion of a single clade that probably originated in Birmingham. The winter phase, in contrast, was more diverse genetically, with several clades of similar size in different locations, some of which had no particularly close phylogenetic affinity to strains sampled from either Scotland or England. Overall there was evidence to support both models, with significant links demonstrated between North American sequences and those from England, and between England and East Asia, indicating that major air-travel routes played an important role in the pattern of spread of the pandemic, both within the UK and globally.
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    Journal Title
    Journal of General Virology
    Volume
    93
    Issue
    6
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1099/vir.0.039370-0
    Subject
    Biological Sciences not elsewhere classified
    Biological Sciences
    Agricultural and Veterinary Sciences
    Medical and Health Sciences
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/62524
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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