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  • Chinese Superstition in US Commodity Trading

    Author(s)
    Chung, Richard
    Darrat, Ali F
    Li, Bin
    Griffith University Author(s)
    Li, Bin
    Chung, Richard R.
    Year published
    2014
    Metadata
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    Abstract
    We examine the potential effect of Chinese superstition on the prices of four commodities traded in the US commodity market using daily data from January 1994 to September 2012. We focus on market responses to days that Chinese traders superstitiously deem as either lucky or unlucky. Our results suggest that day 4 in the month (considered unlucky) is associated with significantly lower returns for three commodities (copper, cotton and soybean). The evidence controls for the possible effects of other anomalies and emerges despite the fact that China buys only about half of the US total exports of these commodities. These ...
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    We examine the potential effect of Chinese superstition on the prices of four commodities traded in the US commodity market using daily data from January 1994 to September 2012. We focus on market responses to days that Chinese traders superstitiously deem as either lucky or unlucky. Our results suggest that day 4 in the month (considered unlucky) is associated with significantly lower returns for three commodities (copper, cotton and soybean). The evidence controls for the possible effects of other anomalies and emerges despite the fact that China buys only about half of the US total exports of these commodities. These results seem in conflict with an efficient US commodity market as it opens the possibility for formulating profitable trading rules based on day 4 trading.
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    Journal Title
    Applied Economics Letters
    Volume
    21
    Issue
    3
    DOI
    https://doi.org/10.1080/13504851.2013.848012
    Subject
    Applied economics
    Banking, finance and investment
    Investment and risk management
    Publication URI
    http://hdl.handle.net/10072/62641
    Collection
    • Journal articles

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