Command without Control? Nuclear Crisis Instability on the Korean Peninsula
Author(s)
O'Neil, A
Griffith University Author(s)
Year published
2014
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
Purpose-To assess the prospects for managing crises on the Korean Peninsula. Design/methodology/approach-This article investigates North Korea's nuclear behavior using theories of crisis instability, which focus on the actual or perceived incentives of a nuclear weapon state to strike first during a crisis. Findings-Pyongyang's embryonic command and control capabilities mean that rapid escalation to full-scale conflict is a greater prospect than generally acknowledged. Practical implications-This raises questions about the ability of protagonists to avoid escalation resulting from miscalculation in future crises on the ...
View more >Purpose-To assess the prospects for managing crises on the Korean Peninsula. Design/methodology/approach-This article investigates North Korea's nuclear behavior using theories of crisis instability, which focus on the actual or perceived incentives of a nuclear weapon state to strike first during a crisis. Findings-Pyongyang's embryonic command and control capabilities mean that rapid escalation to full-scale conflict is a greater prospect than generally acknowledged. Practical implications-This raises questions about the ability of protagonists to avoid escalation resulting from miscalculation in future crises on the Korean Peninsula and has implications for policy makers in devising strategies to deter North Korea from undertaking behavior that risks escalation while reassuring elites in Pyongyang. Originality/value-The article contributes to the literature on nuclear proliferation by challenging overly optimistic assumptions about the behavior of new nuclear powers and it adds value to thinking about how miscalculation during crises on the Korean Peninsula can be avoided.
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View more >Purpose-To assess the prospects for managing crises on the Korean Peninsula. Design/methodology/approach-This article investigates North Korea's nuclear behavior using theories of crisis instability, which focus on the actual or perceived incentives of a nuclear weapon state to strike first during a crisis. Findings-Pyongyang's embryonic command and control capabilities mean that rapid escalation to full-scale conflict is a greater prospect than generally acknowledged. Practical implications-This raises questions about the ability of protagonists to avoid escalation resulting from miscalculation in future crises on the Korean Peninsula and has implications for policy makers in devising strategies to deter North Korea from undertaking behavior that risks escalation while reassuring elites in Pyongyang. Originality/value-The article contributes to the literature on nuclear proliferation by challenging overly optimistic assumptions about the behavior of new nuclear powers and it adds value to thinking about how miscalculation during crises on the Korean Peninsula can be avoided.
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Journal Title
North Korean Review
Volume
10
Issue
1
Copyright Statement
Self-archiving of the author-manuscript version is not yet supported by this journal. Please refer to the journal link for access to the definitive, published version or contact the authors for more information.
Subject
International relations