Probabilistic belief revision via imaging

Abstract

While Bayesian conditioning fits in nicely with probabilistic belief expansion, its use is problematic in the context of non-trivial belief revision. Lewis' use of imaging based on closeness between possible worlds offers a way to overcome this limitation in the context of belief update (in a dynamic environment). In this paper, we explore the use of imaging as a means to construct probabilistic belief revision. Specifically, we present explicit constructions of three candidates strategies, dubbed Naive, Gullible and Cunning, that are based on imaging, and investigate their properties.