Show simple item record

dc.contributor.authorWagner, Liam
dc.contributor.authorRoss, Ian
dc.contributor.authorFoster, John
dc.contributor.authorHankamer, Ben
dc.date.accessioned2018-01-19T05:54:55Z
dc.date.available2018-01-19T05:54:55Z
dc.date.issued2016
dc.identifier.issn1932-6203
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0149406
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10072/99344
dc.description.abstractThe United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C’ and to ‘aim to limit the increase to 1.5°C’. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP (World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2 emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030 onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international ‘pro-growth’ strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve ‘sustainable development’ goals.
dc.description.peerreviewedYes
dc.languageEnglish
dc.language.isoeng
dc.publisherPublic Library of Sciences
dc.relation.ispartofpagefrome014940-1
dc.relation.ispartofpagetoe014940-17
dc.relation.ispartofissue3
dc.relation.ispartofjournalPLoS One
dc.relation.ispartofvolume11
dc.subject.fieldofresearchEnvironment and resource economics
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode380105
dc.titleTrading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development
dc.typeJournal article
dc.type.descriptionC1 - Articles
dc.type.codeC - Journal Articles
dcterms.licensehttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.description.versionVersion of Record (VoR)
gro.facultyGriffith Business School, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics
gro.rights.copyright© 2016 Wagner et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
gro.hasfulltextFull Text
gro.griffith.authorWagner, Liam D.


Files in this item

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

  • Journal articles
    Contains articles published by Griffith authors in scholarly journals.

Show simple item record