dc.contributor.author | Wagner, Liam | |
dc.contributor.author | Ross, Ian | |
dc.contributor.author | Foster, John | |
dc.contributor.author | Hankamer, Ben | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2018-01-19T05:54:55Z | |
dc.date.available | 2018-01-19T05:54:55Z | |
dc.date.issued | 2016 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 1932-6203 | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1371/journal.pone.0149406 | |
dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/10072/99344 | |
dc.description.abstract | The United Nations Conference on Climate Change (Paris 2015) reached an international
agreement to keep the rise in global average temperature ‘well below 2°C’ and to ‘aim to
limit the increase to 1.5°C’. These reductions will have to be made in the face of rising global
energy demand. Here a thoroughly validated dynamic econometric model (Eq 1) is used to
forecast global energy demand growth (International Energy Agency and BP), which is
driven by an increase of the global population (UN), energy use per person and real GDP
(World Bank and Maddison). Even relatively conservative assumptions put a severe upward
pressure on forecast global energy demand and highlight three areas of concern. First, is
the potential for an exponential increase of fossil fuel consumption, if renewable energy systems
are not rapidly scaled up. Second, implementation of internationally mandated CO2
emission controls are forecast to place serious constraints on fossil fuel use from ~2030
onward, raising energy security implications. Third is the challenge of maintaining the international
‘pro-growth’ strategy being used to meet poverty alleviation targets, while reducing
CO2 emissions. Our findings place global economists and environmentalists on the same
side as they indicate that the scale up of CO2 neutral renewable energy systems is not only
important to protect against climate change, but to enhance global energy security by reducing
our dependence of fossil fuels and to provide a sustainable basis for economic development
and poverty alleviation. Very hard choices will have to be made to achieve
‘sustainable development’ goals. | |
dc.description.peerreviewed | Yes | |
dc.language | English | |
dc.language.iso | eng | |
dc.publisher | Public Library of Sciences | |
dc.relation.ispartofpagefrom | e014940-1 | |
dc.relation.ispartofpageto | e014940-17 | |
dc.relation.ispartofissue | 3 | |
dc.relation.ispartofjournal | PLoS One | |
dc.relation.ispartofvolume | 11 | |
dc.subject.fieldofresearch | Environment and resource economics | |
dc.subject.fieldofresearchcode | 380105 | |
dc.title | Trading Off Global Fuel Supply, CO2 Emissions and Sustainable Development | |
dc.type | Journal article | |
dc.type.description | C1 - Articles | |
dc.type.code | C - Journal Articles | |
dcterms.license | https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ | |
dc.description.version | Version of Record (VoR) | |
gro.faculty | Griffith Business School, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics | |
gro.rights.copyright | © 2016 Wagner et al. This is an open
access article distributed under the terms of the
Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits
unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any
medium, provided the original author and source are
credited. | |
gro.hasfulltext | Full Text | |
gro.griffith.author | Wagner, Liam D. | |