The behaviour of US stock prices: Evidence from a threshold autoregressive model

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Narayan, Paresh
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2006
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This paper investigates the behaviour of US stock prices using an unrestricted two-regime threshold autoregressive (TAR) model with an autoregressive unit root. The TAR model is applied to monthly stock price (NYSE Common Stocks) data for the US for the period 1964:06 to 2003:04. Amongst our main results, we find that the US stock price is a nonlinear series that is characterized by a unit root process, consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.

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Mathematics and computers in simulation

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71

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2

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Mathematical Sciences

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Information and Computing Sciences

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