The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations

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Peel, AJ
Pulliam, JRC
Luis, AD
Plowright, RK
O'Shea, TJ
Hayman, DTS
Wood, JLN
Webb, CT
Restif, O
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2014
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Abstract

The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction.

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Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences

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281

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1786

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© 2014 Royal Society. This is the author-manuscript version of this paper. Reproduced in accordance with the copyright policy of the publisher. Please refer to the journal website for access to the definitive, published version.

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Other mathematical sciences not elsewhere classified

Biological sciences

Ecology not elsewhere classified

Agricultural, veterinary and food sciences

Biomedical and clinical sciences

Environmental sciences

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