The hot hand fallacy re-examined: new evidence from the English Premier League

No Thumbnail Available
File version
Author(s)
Parsons, Stephanie
Rohde, Nicholas
Griffith University Author(s)
Primary Supervisor
Other Supervisors
Editor(s)
Date
2015
Size
File type(s)
Location
License
Abstract

Previous studies have illustrated human misperceptions of randomness and resultant suboptimal decision-making with reference to the ‘hot hand’ or momentum effect in sport, the notion of serial dependency between outcomes. However, issues of omitted variables bias have plagued many due to a reliance on nonparametric techniques or basic regression models. This article examines across-game and within-game momentum in the English Premier League (EPL) football competition using fixed effects regressions to control for time-invariant heterogeneity in conjunction with traditional nonparametric techniques. Although the results show evidence of performance reversal following winning streaks, no such evidence is found for streaks of draws or losses or in goal-scoring performance within games. This suggests that momentum is better suited as a post hoc label of performance than a robust causal phenomenon.

Journal Title

Applied Economics

Conference Title
Book Title
Edition
Volume

47

Issue

4

Thesis Type
Degree Program
School
Publisher link
Patent number
Funder(s)
Grant identifier(s)
Rights Statement
Rights Statement
Item Access Status
Note
Access the data
Related item(s)
Subject

Applied economics

Applied economics not elsewhere classified

Econometrics

Banking, finance and investment

Persistent link to this record
Citation
Collections