In the 2020 Defence Strategic Update, the Coalition government warned that Australia’s region ‘is in the midst of the most consequential strategic realignment since the Second World War.’1 This warning was issued in a context where bilateral tensions with China were building, and doubts had grown among US allies worldwide about the credibility of US alliance commitments under the Trump administration. The commissioning in August 2022 of a Defence Strategic Review by the Albanese Government ‘to ensure Defence has the right capabilities to meet our growing strategic needs’2 confirms that the pessimistic assessments of the 2020 Defence Strategic Update have, if anything, hardened since 2020.